Too Soon, GOP Primary, Too Soon

I wish the 2012 Republican Primary would never end.  It’s just so much fun!  This race has been full of touching personal interactions and some of the best ads ever made.  But because of some scheduling shenanigans, this election could be over before the start of February.

After competitive frontloading forced the 2008 primary election all the way up to January 3^rd, Republican party leaders were committed to ensuring that 2012 contained a more reasonable primary schedule that did not expose voters to intensive GOTV campaigning during the holiday season, volunteers to door-to-door efforts during blizzards, and the country to eight straight months of elections.  However, with Nevada and Florida threatening to push their primaries to the front of the schedule, New Hampshire and Iowa felt compelled to once again start the primary season on January 3^rd in order to preserve their first-in-the-nation status, righteously theirs by virtue of . . . umm . . .

Anyways, there are a variety of reasons a state may want to obtain early-state status.  First, campaigns require staff, office space, mailings, flyers, and tons of advertisements, all of which bring revenue to the state.  Next, forcing every future president to go through your state helps support unique state interests that might not get as much love at the national level (you didn’t think politicians actually supported ethanol subsidies, did you?).  Finally, an early primary makes obscure state representatives and state senators prominent players in national politics, with candidates from other areas in desperate need of their established field organizations.

However, the biggest problem with the accelerated 2012 election calendar is not the annoying New Year’s robocalls or the excessively stretched out schedule; it’s the potential for perceived electoral illegitimacy.  Somehow, despite a distinct aura of loser, Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner for the nomination.  He’s ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, and wants to preserve the status quo to keep his lead.  Romney needs the early primaries to occur before rising campaigns sort out their message, flailing opponents drop out and cause opposition to consolidate, and Rick Perry learns to talk.

What’s disturbing is that Romney – who benefits from an accelerated calendar – seems to be actively maneuvering for it, refusing join the other candidates in skipping the bumped up Nevada caucus, which forced Iowa and New Hampshire to practically place their elections in 2011.  Yet even if Romney’s actions don’t shape the outcome of the primary, his sketchy scheduling stances increase the odds that this primary will end with challenges against its legitimacy.  And as funny as it can be to imagine this guy ranting about a fixed deal as Romney accepts the nomination, it undermines our democracy to have its validity questioned.  The unstable nature of the primary schedule caused this to occur in 2008 and its at serious risk of happening again.  There are many features of the presidential primary system that need to be reviewed or changed, but perhaps none more than the fact that the rules of an election need to be set before the election starts.

Image self-taken.