Posted Wednesday, January 4th, 2012 by hlpr
Iowa By Eight
Last night the Iowa caucus gave the GOP field its first official feedback of the primary season. The night brought a technical winner, a last minute surge, and two candidates either dropping out or reconsidering their bids.
Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum by a mere eight votes to win. While the victory represents new ground for Romney who failed to win Iowa in 2008, the real victor was Santorum who emerged in the last week to pass Paul, Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann. Santorum’s year long campaign to Iowa’s 99 counties paid off big for the candidate who was always a sideline candidate. Surely RickSantorum.com has seen a traffic uptick in the last twelve hours.
The question now is what, if anything, the Iowa results mean for the primary race. Each candidate has to re-evaluate their next steps. Frontrunner Romney needs to maintain his lead in New Hampshire. Polling indicates that he is currently ahead there but unlike last night’s race, in New Hampshire Romney will have to stave off advances and attacks my Huntsman. Huntsman did not put worth a sizable Iowa effort and instead doubled-down in New Hampshire.
Santorum will need to maintain his moment like other candidates have not. Perhaps Gingrich and Paul have the most to prove in New Hampshire. While Paul has the advantage of a third place finish, Gingrich has to prove that his popular debate performances and book sales translate to real votes. Michele Bachmann just announced she will end her campaign.
The biggest part of last night’s story isn’t the candidates but rather the fractured base that turned to Santorum in the last ten days of campaigning. If Santorum can come from behind and surprise virtually all pundits and newspapers, is it possible for another candidate to enter the game and disrupt the field yet again. Odds are not good that another candidate will jump in at this point but it could happen.
A final takeaway is the fact that this year’s GOP nominee can’t just win Iowa and New Hampshire to secure the primary race. Even if Romney wins New Hampshire, last night’s victory wasn’t the pull-away start the Romney campaign needed to lock in frontrunner status.
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