How Predictive is Questioning During Oral Argument?
Posted 53 days ago by David Yin
The mainstream media and legal blogosphere have covered the oral arguments in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act litigation (Dept. of Health and Human Services v. Florida) ad nauseam. The NYTimes certified, ”[t]here is no tea-leaf reading like Supreme Court tea-leaf reading” and excerpted commentary from notable sources:
Lyle Denniston from SCOTUSBlog determined that the argument ended “with Kennedy, after first displaying a very deep skepticism, leaving the impression that he might yet be the mandate’s savior.” Other observers, listening to the same argument, were not so optimistic about the law’s chances. Andrew Cohen of The Atlantic reported “[t]he initial wisdom from the commentariat coming out of Tuesday’s argument, after all the barking by court conservatives, is that the insurance mandate is in trouble.” Jeffrey Toobin of the New Yorker declared, in a much-criticized rant, “This is a train wreck for the Obama administration… This law looks like it’s going to be struck down. I’m telling you all of the predictions, including mine, that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong.” Dahlia Lithwick of Slate penned a piece titled, “A Moment of Silence for Obamacare.”
All this analysis elides the antecedent question, which is how much stock should we be putting into these pointed questions?



Despite his questionable and objectionable policy recommendations, Glazek does make an important observation: In our reporting of national crime statistics, we fail to account for the large body of crime occurring in our nation’s prisons.


